Natural disasters require explanation

Have you noticed? Have you have heard the latest buzz? Natural disasters like tsunamis, hurricanes, tornados, volcanoes, droughts, wildfires, floods, landslides, and mudslides, seem to be on the increase. Is it a sign of the apocalypse, or a judgment sent by God?

Just weeks after Hurricanes Katrina and Rita ripped through U.S. Gulf Coast states leaving much of New Orleans submerged and uninhabitable, a massive earthquake shattered lives in Pakistan, India, and Kashmir. The death toll stands at more than 40,000 and climbing.

It was only 8 months ago that a magnitude 9 earthquake in the Indian Ocean off of the western coast of Sumatra set off several tsunamis, devastating parts of southern Thailand and other countries in the region. Over 276,000 perished.

Other natural disasters have occurred with surprising frequency recently, in countries around the world. September saw Typhoon Talim strike Taiwan and China. At least 53 were reported dead. A magnitude 7 earthquake also hit northern Peru last month, killing at least four.

This month Typhoon Damrey rolled through China, the Phillipines, and Vietnam, killing at least 31. Landslides in Guatemala claimed at least 613 lives last week. Hurricane Stan struck in Mexico and South America, killing at least 65 people. El Salvador’s Ilamatepec volcano also erupted this month.

What is going on? Why is our planet in such violent turmoil?

Some view these events collectively as an omen of religious or spiritual significance, a sign of warning that the end of time is near. Others have suggested that these disasters are sent by God to punish sinfulness, and avenge human wrongdoing. Of Hurricane Katrina, Michael Marcavage, the director of Repent America, reportedly said that “this act of God destroyed a wicked city.” The Old Testament of the Bible provides a number of such stories of catastrophic events brought about by God to punish or teach a stubborn or errant people.

My own bias leads me to look for naturalistic explanations of natural disasters provided by scientists. We understand much about the forces that underlie such events. Occasionally, as with Hurricane Katrina, scientists are able to predict in advance, with a fair degree of accuracy, the time and place that they will strike. Likewise, earthquake fault lines and past seismic events provide clues to the probable locations of future earthquakes and volcanic eruptions. Unfortunately, the timing of earthquakes proves much more difficult to predict at present.

It does seem as if we have had more than our share of natural disasters recently, but are such events really increasing in frequency? Although U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) ranked 2004 as the deadliest year for earthquakes in recent history, it was not the most fatal in recorded history. Records show that on January 23, 1556, a powerful earthquake killed an estimated 830,000 people in Shansi, China. With humans populating virtually every inhabitable nook and cranny on the planet, and with increasing population densities, it stands to reason that fatalities from natural disasters would increase in modern times.

Clearly, we live on an active planet. The features of the Earth provide clear evidence of a violent past. Scientists describe energy-driven processes from within the Earth’s hot interior. Other powerful forces that have affected conditions on Earth include the Sun, gravity, and collisions with comets and asteroids. These processes have been around since long before humans occupied the planet.

Perhaps it is our nature to require causes and explanations for natural events, particularly disasters that have such far-reaching consequences on human lives. In times past, it seems understandable that pre-scientific societies would imagine mysterious forces or supernatural causes to be responsible for natural disasters. As we develop greater insight into the forces of nature, however, such beliefs may seem unnecessary and out of place. Perhaps the persistence of supernatural explanations demonstrates the need for scientists and educators to better disseminate our understanding of the natural forces underlying this violent and often unpredictable world in which we live.